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NYT And WSJ Polls Indicate Trouble For Healthcare

Jul 30

Posted by Shawn in Healthcare, Obama, Strategy Memos

There are two polls out today from NYT/CBS and WSJ/NBC offering similar perspectives on healthcare reform and President Obama’s agenda.

 

**As a brief side note—it would be useful if the New York Times would not throw so much useless information into their articles.  One has to read 15 paragraphs to get to any actual data.  This is a poll, not an interview with an Iowa Democrat. 

 

To start, Obama’s approval has fallen as he continues his push for health reform.  The polls show wide disparities in approval (SURPRISE—NYT is a bit high), but both indicate 8-10 point drops since April.

 

Mr. Obama’s job approval rating has dropped 10 points, to 58 percent, from a high point in April. (NYT)

 

Overall, Mr. Obama’s ratings fell on a series of measures. His job approval now stands at 53%, down from a high of 61% in April. (WSJ)

 

Without a doubt, the honeymoon is over.  Voters no longer have a starry-eyed view of “The One.”

 

The proportion of people who said it was very or fairly likely that Mr. Obama would bring “real change” dropped to 51% from 61% in February. The share of those who said he could be trusted to keep his word fell to 48% this month from 58% in April. (WSJ)

 

Some of this drop in approval may be a result of Obama’s unpopular stimulus package.

 

Falling support for the economic stimulus plan, with 34% in favor, down from 44% in February; 43% now say it is a bad idea. (WSJ)

 

In addressing healthcare reform, it’s clear respondents want change and are displeased with the current system.

 

49 percent said they supported fundamental changes, and 33 percent said the health care system needed to be completely rebuilt. (NYT)

 

But voters don’t want the high-tax, government-run options that Obama is pushing.

 

In mid-June, respondents were evenly divided when asked whether they thought Mr. Obama’s health plan was a good or bad idea. In the new poll, conducted July 24-27, 42% called it a bad idea while 36% said it was a good idea. (WSJ)

 

Primarily, this pushback is coming from Americans who are pleased with their health insurance.  They are concerned they won’t be able to choose their own doctor and determine what coverage they need.

 

Among those with private insurance, the proportion calling the plan a bad idea rose to 47% from 37%. (WSJ)

 

Respondents believe that government-run health insurance will leave them with second-rate care.  The polls show voters think quality will decline under Obama’s plan.

 

And despite his efforts — in speeches, news conferences, town-hall-style meetings and other forums — to address public misgivings, 69 percent of respondents in the poll said they were concerned that the quality of their own care would decline if the government created a program that covers everyone. (NYT)

 

In the Journal poll, only two in 10 people said the quality of their own care would improve under the Obama plan; just 15% of those with private insurance thought it would. Twice as many overall, and three times as many with private coverage, predicted their own care would get worse. (WSJ)

 

All the data above may seem like good news for the GOP, but WSJ shows the public backs Democratic plans on paying for reform.

 

On the question of how to pay for the measure, the poll found only one idea with majority support: a surtax on the rich, the approach taken in the bill moving through the House, but which isn’t expected in the Senate version.

 

Public support for fining businesses that don’t offer insurance dropped from last month, with half of those polled now in favor. Only four in 10 liked the idea of taxing insurance companies that offer particularly generous health plans, an idea that has gained currency in the Senate Finance Committee. (WSJ)

 

All told, Americans are confused about healthcare.  Costs are the greatest concern for most voters, but respondents thought costs would rise regardless of what is done.

 

In one finding, 75 percent of respondents said they were concerned that the cost of their own health care would eventually go up if the government did not create a system of providing health care for all Americans. But in another finding, 77 percent said they were concerned that the cost of health care would go up if the government did create such a system. (NYT)

 

If Republicans want to succeed on this issue, they should try a little harder to offer ideas and find compromise.

 

By 55 percent to 26 percent, respondents said Mr. Obama had better ideas about how to change health care than Republicans in Congress did. (NYT)

 

There is overwhelming support for a bipartisan agreement on health care, and here again, Mr. Obama appears in the stronger position: 59 percent said that he was making an effort to work with Congressional Republicans, while just 33 percent said Republicans were trying to work with him on the issue. (NYT)

 

But at least the GOP has convinced voters Democrats are just as partisan as they are.

 

The poll also found a rising sense of partisanship. More than three in 10 surveyed said the current Congress has been more partisan and divided than in the past, compared with just 11% who said it has been less partisan.

 

In February, people were more likely to blame Republicans by a two-to-one margin. This month, they were divided over who to blame, with most saying both parties were at fault. (WSJ)

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WRA Strategy Memo: The Improving Economy

Jul 29

Posted by Shawn in Strategy Memos

America is seeing the light at the end of the tunnel as we pass through this recession.  Most believe that economic indicators are starting to show signs of improvement.  Papers today led with news that the housing market may have stabilized.  Last week, employment numbers were still dismal, but new filings for unemployment insurance benefits remained below 600,000.  The most noticeable sign of recovery for most Americans is that the Dow Jones Industrial Average is hovering above 9,000, which is a 39% gain since March. 

 

While everyone is thrilled to see the economy making a comeback, this presents a conundrum for Republican strategists.  Democrats have a very simple plan: own the economy.  Leading up to 2010 and 2012, liberals will blame the economic collapse on the Bush Administration and claim full responsibility for any improvements made since Obama took office.  With fifteen months left before the midterms, it is unlikely the economy will stagnate.  It’s going to grow, and Democrats can point to their stimulus and new regulations as the cornerstones of recovery.

 

The prospect of this debate worries Republicans.  Right now, their message questioning wasteful spending and high unemployment resonates with the public.  Coupled with the unpopularity of Obama’s healthcare push, the economy has sunk Obama’s approval ratings.  But when the economy improves, Obama may have a Clinton-esque rebound.

 

The GOP needs to prepare to deal with this dilemma.  Three talking points will be key:

 

1. Recovery is a natural part of the economic cycle. 

2. Democrats’ spending binge has slowed growth and piled debt on the backs of taxpayers. 

3. Republican opposition has boosted the economy.

 

These are relatively simple points to argue.  Almost everyone has said from the start of the crisis that the economy would grow again; we just needed to hit bottom first.  With public concerns over Obama’s record deficit, the second talking point may resonate the most with voters.  Americans are weary of the stimulus package and calls for new entitlements.  High taxes don’t aid the economy.  Lastly, Republicans have surprisingly been able to slow some legislation more than anticipated.  Healthcare, card check, and cap and trade are three primary examples.  They all may eventually pass, but conservative opposition has softened the blow to business.  According to an article in The Hill, financial analysts say that the stock market has gone up as a result of Obama’s stalled agenda.

 

Republicans should not wait to begin making these points.  Over recess, the GOP should hammer Obama’s handling of the economy.  The idea needs to be planted in voters’ minds that the economy will improve, but Republicans could have sped up the process.  If the GOP doesn’t do this now, it will be difficult to make the argument next year when Obama’s popularity shows a perfect correlation to economic growth.

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Healthcare Strategy Memo: Time Is On Our Side

Jul 20

Posted by Shawn in Healthcare, Strategy Memos

The Administration and Congressional Democrats continue to push their August deadline for healthcare reform.  This is surprising considering the setbacks the legislation suffered on multiple fronts this past week.  On yesterday’s Sunday morning talk shows, top Democrats stuck by their timetable when asked about the August deadline.

 

BUDGET DIRECTOR PETER ORCZAG: “I think the chances are high” to pass the bill by August.

 

SEC. KATHLEEN SIBELIUS: “We think this can be done; the House and Senate are on track and on time.”

 

REP. CHARLIE RANGEL: “The president has given us a deadline. We’re working under it. Our committee has reported out a bill.”

 

SEN. CHARLES SCHUMER: “We expect the House and Senate to have passed bills” before leaving Washington.

 

SEN. KENT CONRAD: The bill will “be through the Finance Committee by the August recess.”

 

As Republicans seek to derail government-run healthcare plans, a key argument should be against the frantic efforts from Democrats to pass reforms immediately.  Conservatives need to clearly articulate the dangers of rushing to pass any particular bill.  Appropriate research and scoring needs to be done on legislation that could completely alter all Americans’ healthcare coverage.  Prudence, not time, is of the essence.

 

Sen. Mitch McConnell previewed this argument yesterday:

 

“This is the same kind of rush-and-spend strategy we saw on the stimulus bill,” Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, Kentucky Republican, said on “Meet the Press.” Any plan merely hatched among Democrats to meet a deadline “shouldn’t pass at any point, either before the August recess or later in the year.”

 

“What we need to come up with is a truly bipartisan proposal,” he said.

 

As voters grow weary of the Democratic Congress’ “spend, spend, spend” strategy, talking points that compare the unnecessary rush to pass a healthcare bill by August to the failed stimulus plan will resonate.  Republicans can use this approach to delay action until after recess, and while lawmakers are in their districts, the party committees and third party groups should hammer the weaknesses of the bill.  Americans want to control costs and keep taxes low.  Neither of these are true of the current legislation.  This is a winnable debate that the GOP should force into the fall.

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White House Strategy Memo: Own The Economy

Jul 14

Posted by Shawn in Strategy Memos

Earlier today, we learned that President Obama believes unemployment will rise in the coming months.  This was a clear indication that, despite the Administration’s highly touted stimulus plan, top advisers do not believe the economy will improve.  Shortly after making these claims, Obama surprisingly took full ownership of the economy.  Previously, Obama has placed blame on George W. Bush for the continued economic troubles, but now he is taking responsibility for the lack of improvement during his own time in office.

 

In Michigan on Tuesday afternoon — hours after he said he expects unemployment numbers to rise — Obama assumed sole responsibility for the economy while also taking a swipe at his political opponents.

 

“I love those folks who helped get us in this mess and now say, ‘This is Obama’s economy,’ ” Obama said.

 

“That’s fine. Give it to me … So I welcome the job. My job is to solve problems. Not to stand on the sidelines and carp and gripe.”

 

This seems like a strange move.  Voters still blame the Bush Administration for failing to regulate markets, so Obama could continue deflecting criticism on his predecessor.  But there may be a keen strategy at work here.  By making it clear in the same day that he expects unemployment to rise and now owns the economy, Obama has set himself up for rising above expectations.  If unemployment increases, he says it was expected.  If it falls, he takes credit for creating jobs.  Regardless of the short-term, America’s economy will grow.  By asserting his control now, Obama will take full credit for the long-term gains.

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