Sen. Harry Reid may have abysmal polling numbers, but his fundraising proves his continued strength.  Reid raised $3.2 million in the second quarter, giving him $7.3 million in his war chest.

Reid polls at only 34% approval, which is five points lower than his junior colleague from Nevada, embattled Sen. John Ensign.  Normally, such polling would entice a challenger, but Reid remains formidable because of his fundraising.

The GOP would like Rep. Dean Heller to run against Reid, but that looks unlikely.  He has only $177,000 in his campaign account.

For someone looking at a run for Senate, Rep. Mike Castle has done little fundraising and even transferred money to the Delaware Republican Party.

This is surprising because earlier reports indicated Castle was strongly considering the race.

Last week, I reported Pat Toomey may face a primary challenge from Jane Orie, the GOP Majority Whip in the Pennsylvania state Senate.

Earlier today, Orie announced she will not be running.

Meanwhile, Toomey announced today that his fundraising was above expectations at $1.6 million.  This is likely a better total than both Democrats Rep. Joe Sestak and Sen. Arlen Specter.

Sen. Chris Dodd, who faces a tough reelection battle, raised $1.2 million in the second quarter, outpacing both his Republican rivals.

Last week, we learned Republicans Tom Foley and Rob Simmons raised $530,000 and $750,000, respectively.  While Dodd may appear well ahead of Foley and Simmons, Dodd will need to do better.  Both Republicans have only recently entered the race and should be able to raise far more over the next year and a half, especially if Dodd continues looking vulnerable.

It is looking like a distinct possibility that Rep. Joe Sestak could take down Sen. Arlen Specter in the Pennsylvania Senate Democratic primary.

Sestak is going to announce he raised over $1 million last quarter and has about $4.2 million in the bank.

Specter raised $1.2 million in the first quarter, but has not yet reported his latest numbers.

It now looks like Illinois GOP Chairman Andy McKenna will drop out of the open-seat Senate primary, which will allow Rep. Mark Kirk (R) to get back in the race.  This follows the confusion last week as Kirk entered the race, dropped out, and then suggested he might get back in, all within 48 hours.

Chris Cillizza continues his coverage of the race:

Kirk To Get His Wish: Seventy-two hours after informing several Republican strategists that he was not running for the Senate in Illinois due to concerns of a primary challenge, Rep. Mark Kirk looks almost certain to get a clear field after all. Illinois Republican Party chairman Andy McKenna is nearly certain to bow out in favor of Kirk today, according to numerous conversations with strategists close to the process. Kirk had made clear that he would not run if McKenna also ran. While national Republicans will now likely get their wish — as Kirk is clearly their strongest potential general election candidate — his off-again, on-again decision about the race suggests an ambivalence that should be worrisome to Republican recruiters. A Kirk candidacy would give Republicans a real shot at winning the seat being vacated by appointed Sen. Roland Burris (D). On the Democratic side, state Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias is the only announced candidate. Merchandise Mart CEO Chris Kennedy is reportedly interested but the fact he isn’t in the race yet suggests he may not get in.

I didn’t have a chance to blog about Rep. Mark Kirk (R-IL) yesterday since I was driving back to DC after a short vacation in Ohio.  (I did, however, offer a brief tweet of the breaking news when it was first announced he wasn’t running for Senate—remember to follow me on Twitter.)  As it turns out, Kirk’s future remains unclear.  Late yesterday, after earlier saying he was out of the open seat* Senate race in Illinois, he indicated he may be willing to reconsider.

The difficulty for Kirk springs from his lengthy deliberations on entering the race.  Because Kirk took so long, Illinois GOP Chairman Andy McKenna announced his candidacy and planned to bow out if Kirk decided to run.  But when Kirk officially became a candidate this week, McKenna stayed in the race.  The decision is likely linked to conservative anger over Kirk’s vote for Waxman-Markey a few weeks ago.

The national party strongly favors Kirk and is urging McKenna to drop out, but McKenna is standing his ground.  Kirk will run if he does not face such a strong primary challenger.  What happens next is hard to predict, but with pressure on him, McKenna should exit gracefully.  The race will be difficult, and without strong national support, McKenna is a long shot.

*Also noticeably absent from my blog yesterday was coverage of Roland Burris.  To be honest, that happened before I got on the road, but I didn’t deem it newsworthy.  Apparently, almost every major newspaper in the country disagreed with me.  Nobody thought Burris would be running anyway, especially after the ethics questions that have plagued him the past few months.  I don’t see the need for all the coverage this received.

Pat Toomey (R), who is the likely Republican nominee in the Pennsylvania Senate race, raised over $1 million last quarter.  That may help him to stave off a primary challenge from Jane Orie, the GOP Majority Whip in the state Senate.

Orie, accompanied by Pennsylvania GOP chairman Rob Gleason, recently met with the NRSC to discuss a run.  It’s possible that Republicans are feeling uneasy with Toomey, but his fundraising talents still far outmatch those of almost any potential competitor.  It remains unclear whether Orie will run, but she will need to get involved soon to raise the necessary funds.