Democrats in North Carolina are struggling to find a candidate to challenge Sen. Richard Burr.  It’s a top tier race, and polling suggests Burr is vulnerable. North Carolina has been tilting toward Democrats.  Sen. Kay Hagan (D) defeated incumbent Elizabeth Dole (R) in last year’s Senate race, and Obama won the state.  This should make ambitious Democrats eager to jump in the race.

But in May, state Attorney General Roy Cooper announced he would pass.  Today, the only other credible challenger, Rep. Mike McIntyre, declined to run. 

This leaves Secretary of State Elaine Marshall, former state senator Cal Cunningham, and attorney Kenneth Lewis as the only potential challengers.  This isn’t the field the DSCC wanted, and it may indicate Burr is far stronger than many believe.

Though hardly surprising, it’s now official that Sen. Jim Bunning will not be running for reelection.  This will leave Kentucky Secretary of State Trey Grayson an easy path to victory in the Republican primary.  He will later face Jack Conway or Daniel Mongiardo in the general election.

Bunning’s announcement comes on the heels of an AP story on Sunday citing past supporters who were lining up behind Grayson.  Republican donors have been hoping Bunning would let someone younger run for the seat, which could swing to Democrats.

Bunning and Kentucky’s senior Senator, Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, barely speak.  In his announcement, Bunning took a swipe at the Republicans who have refused to back him in his reelection campaign:

“When I cast a vote I think about how it will affect my grandchildren and the next generation of Kentuckians, not my next election or invitation to a D.C. cocktail party,” Mr. Bunning said in his statement.

Sen. Barbara Boxer is struggling, according to a new poll out from Rasmussen.  The poll shows Republican businesswoman Carly Fiorina trailing by only 4 points, 45% to 41%. Fiorina has closed the gap since March when Boxer led 47% to 38%.

Fiorina remains mostly unknown in California, but Boxer has become increasingly unpopular.  She also has given Republicans plenty to throw at her during the campaign.  She recently was accused of being a racist by a black business leader, and many Democrats think she may sink the climate bill’s chances in the Senate.

Voters are probably just temporarily frustrated with Boxer.  California heavily favors Democrats, and there is still over a year until the election.

A Quinnipiac poll out today shows Sen. Chris Dodd (D) remains unpopular with Connecticut voters.  Only 42% of voters approve of Dodd, which is a slight improvement from previous polls, but anything below 50% is bad news for an incumbent.  Quinnipiac University Poll Director Douglas Schwartz believes it will be difficult for Dodd to rebound:

“Dodd’s most glaring weakness continues to be that a majority of voters say he is not honest and trustworthy. This is not something that will be easy for Dodd to reverse. Another problem for Dodd is that the bad economy has put voters in a grumpy mood. Consequently, voters have little patience for politician’s missteps,” Schwartz said.

In the general election, Dodd will likely face former Rep. Rob Simmons (R).  Simmons currently has a dominant lead in the Republican primary, and he will be favored when challenging Dodd.  The poll shows Simmons at a 48%-39% advantage.  Incumbents rarely can come back from such a deficit.

A Quinnipiac poll out today shows former Rep. Pat Toomey has caught up to Sen. Arlen Specter in the Pennsylvania Senate race.  This is a bad sign for Specter, who frustrated voters by switching parties earlier this year.

Pennsylvania Sen. Arlen Specter’s 2010 reelection lead over Republican challenger Pat Toomey has shrunk to a tie with 45 percent for Specter and 44 percent for Toomey, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. And voters say 49 - 40 percent that Sen. Specter does not deserve reelection.

…

On May 4, Specter led Toomey 53 - 33 percent in a trial heat; his favorable unfavorable ratio among Pennsylvania voters was 52 - 34 percent and voters said 49 - 41 percent he deserved reelection. In a May 28 Quinnipiac University poll, Specter led Toomey 46 - 37 percent.

Specter currently faces Rep. Joe Sestak in the Democratic primary.  If Sestak chooses to run, he is at a strong disadvantage.

Specter, first elected to the Senate as a Republican in 1980 but who switched to the Democratic Party earlier this year, holds a commanding 55 - 23 percent lead over U.S. Rep. Joe Sestak in the race for the Democratic nomination.

Unless polling improves for Sestak, there’s a good chance he will back out of the race.  Top Democrats are pressuring him to keep his House seat.

Former New Hampshire Attorney General Kelly Ayotte (R) has avoided a primary challenge from businessman Fred Tausch, who backed out of the race today.

STEWARD of Prosperity founder Fred Tausch, of Merrimack, issued the following statement today regarding his plans for the 2010 elections:

 

“As I’ve traveled across New Hampshire for STEWARD, it’s become very clear to me that voters are looking for a new kind of bold leadership. Fed up with professional politicians who have stopped listening to them and acting in their best interest, they want to stop the seemingly endless spendathon at the Statehouse and on Capitol Hill.

 

“Many Republicans have encouraged me to be their voice as a candidate for office next year. It was an honor to be approached and I gave the prospect serious consideration. But after careful deliberation, I’ve decided not to enter public service at this time.”

Former state Board of Education Chairman Ovide Lamontagne (R) may still enter the primary, but Ayotte is strongly favored by national Republicans.  The winner will face Rep. Paul Hodes in what will be a close general election battle.

A new poll from Public Policy Polling shows disgraced Sen. David Vitter (R) remains unpopular but could win his reelection bid.

Just 38% of voters in the state say Vitter deserves to be reelected with 47% saying it’s time to give someone else a chance. That’s partly a reflection on Vitter, and partly indicative of the general anti-incumbent mood across the country right now.

Vitter will likely face Rep. Charlie Melancon (D) in the general election.  Melancon’s numbers, at first, look weak.

Vitter: 44%

Melancon: 32%

A generic Democrat actually polls better than Melancon.

Vitter: 44%

Generic Democrat: 38%

But Melancon has more strength than it appears.  Many voters, 42%, still don’t know enough about him to have an informed opinion.  Melancon, a conservative Blue Dog, will poll better once voters know more about him.  Additionally, when an incumbent sits below 50%, he isn’t safe.  Vitter remains unpopular even though it has now been two years since his prostitution scandal.  This race is a tossup.

The DSCC raised $12.8 million in the second quarter, compared to $11 million for the NRSC.  This gives the DSCC $7.9 million in the bank versus $4.3 million for Republicans, a cash-on-hand lead of $3.6 million

When debt is considered, however, the NRSC has a slight advantage.  The NRSC has fully paid off its debt, but the DSCC has $3.7 million in debt remaining from the 2008 election.

There is a new poll out today from Research 2000/Daily Kos that shows the New Hampshire Senate race is a pure tossup. 

    Paul Hodes (D): 42

    Charlie Bass (R): 37

 

    Paul Hodes (D): 38

    Kelly Ayotte (R): 39

    (MoE: ±4%)

I find it curious they polled for Charlie Bass since few have speculated on him entering the race.  On the other hand, it is looking like Ayotte, who is currently favored by the NRSC, will face primary challengers.  Former New Hampshire gubernatorial candidate Ovide Lamontagne hired a top consultant in the state to help prepare for a run, and businessman Fred Tausch has been airing ads attacking the stimulus plan.  Neither has officially declared candidacy.