Big day in Nevada Senate news. 

First, a poll out this morning from Vitale & Associates shows that if Sue Lowden, the Nevada Republican Party chairwoman, were to run against Sen. Harry Reid, she would be favored by a margin of 48% to 42% (MoE 4.4%).  Lowden has not yet decided to enter the race, but it’s being reported this afternoon that Rep. Dean Heller (R) has decided not to run.  This comes as a surprise to some party insiders.  Internal polling shows Heller nine points ahead of Reid, but with today’s poll indicating Lowden is also a threat to the Majority Leader, it’s likely she will jump into the race soon with the field cleared of her toughest primary opponent.  While Reid plans to spend nearly $25 million on his campaign, this may not help him as his popularity continues to plummet.

Most noteworthy from the poll:

In three Reid-related categories — image, approval and whether they would vote to re-elect — respondents gave the senator a thumbs down. Just 39 percent viewed Reid favorably, and 34 percent said they would vote to re-elect him.

 

“All of those are very, very telling pieces of information,” said Vitale, who has been a pollster for 15 years. “I’ve never seen an incumbent with numbers this bad who hadn’t had some scandal.”

While many liberal groups have thus far stayed on the sidelines of the Pennsylvania Democratic primary, VoteVets.org has decided to endorse Rep. Joe Sestak.  Jon Soltz, the organization’s co-founder, wrote this endorsement for the Huffington Post:

If the soldiers or Marines on the ground in Iraq or Afghanistan operated under “every man for himself” or “screw you, I got mine” as their code, we wouldn’t last very long.

 

Joe Sestak, especially, has a strong understanding of that, having risen up to the rank of Admiral in the Navy, where he had a large number of men and ships under his command. He applies that principle to major decisions he’s had to make in Congress, and will carry that on to the Senate. And, it’s not a principle from which he will waver, or toss away due to politics.

 

In the end, it’s not just pushing for more recent veterans in House and Senate just because they’re veterans. It’s about what they’ve carried home with them in their heads and hearts. It’s about bringing to Congress the same integrity, honor, and hard work with which veterans served America while in the military.

 

I think we all agree that Capitol Hill could use a bit more of that.

Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand has cleared the field. 

Representative Carolyn B. Maloney is expected to announce today that she has changed her mind and will not enter the primary race against Kirsten E. Gillibrand, New York’s newly appointed senator.

 

A person close to Mrs. Maloney, a Democrat from Manhattan, said she made her decision not to run after days of agonizing over the fact that running meant she would have to leave her current job at a point when she had significant seniority in Congress.

 

“It’s been a tough decision for her,” said the Maloney associate who spoke on condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to discuss the matter.

The race for President Obama’s former Senate seat faces a crowded Democratic field, but it is looking like Alexi Giannoulias will easily defeat his two Democratic rivals, Chris Kennedy and Cheryle Jackson, in the primary.

The poll, conducted by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner, shows Giannoulias winning 45 percent of the primary vote against businessman (and RFK son) Chris Kennedy and Chicago Urban League president Cheryle Jackson. In the three-way race, Kennedy tallies 17 percent of the vote, with Jackson at 13 percent.

 

In a head-to-head matchup against Jackson, Giannoulias leads by 30 points, 51 to 21 percent.

The Democratic primary winner is expected to take on Rep. Mark Kirk (R) in the general election.

Rep. Ron Paul’s son has decided to run for Senate in Kentucky.

Rand Paul, the son of 2008 presidential candidate Ron Paul, ended months of speculation Wednesday by saying he will run for the U.S. Senate seat being vacated next year by fellow Republican Jim Bunning.

 

The Bowling Green ophthalmologist told The Associated Press he is entering the race and plans to run as a candidate with “outsider” credentials.

Paul will have a tough road ahead, though.  Trey Grayson (R) is widely considered the frontrunner in the primary and general election.  Paul will need to catch up quickly.

Paul will have to overcome the fundraising prowess of Grayson, a rising star in the Kentucky GOP, to win the nomination. Even without announcing his candidacy, Grayson reported raising more than $600,000 in the second quarter for an exploratory committee he formed to consider the race.

 

To be competitive in the primary election, Paul said he likely will need about $2 million.

 

Borrowing a strategy from his father’s Republican presidential campaign, Paul said he plans to lean heavily on Web-based fundraising. His father banked $6 million in one day from an Internet fundraiser.

 

Paul’s single-day fundraiser is scheduled for Aug. 20. He set a goal of $1 million.

The NRSC has not formally endorsed a candidate in the New Hampshire Senate primary, but it’s clear the committee favors Kelly Ayotte.

Former Attorney General Kelly Ayotte (R), who resigned last month in order to explore a race, will benefit from a fundraiser at NRSC headquarters on Sept. 22, according to an invitation for the event.

 

And though the NRSC is officially neutral in the race, special guests at Ayotte’s fundraiser include Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (Ky.) and NRSC chairman John Cornyn (Texas).

Not too many consider North Dakota a top tier Senate race, but a new poll out from the NRSC looks like it may be.  Gov. John Hoeven (R) leads Sen. Byron Dorgan (D) by 17 points.

The NRSC’s poll, which was conducted by Public Opinion Strategies, shows Hoeven leading by double digits, 53-36.

…

The NRSC’s poll put Hoeven’s favorability at an unheard-of 86 percent, with just 5 percent holding an unfavorable opinion of him. Those numbers seem implausible, but the fact remains that he is very, very popular.

 

Dorgan, meanwhile, has 69 percent favorability and 24 percent unfavorables.

 

It’s interesting that the NRSC is putting this poll out publicly. Rest assured, this is part of a larger effort to lure Hoeven into the race. But the climb appears steep in getting him to leave the governor’s mansion.