When a challenger boldly pursues the incumbent’s base, it’s typically a good sign an incumbent is in trouble.  This is now the case in New Jersey, where Republican Chris Christie has polled far ahead of Gov. Jon Corzine (D) for months.  As the candidates head into the home stretch of this campaign, the Republican Governors Association is sponsoring television ads targeting environmentally-conscious voters.  The ad cites the Sierra Club’s criticism of Corzine.  Additionally, the RGA is launching radio ads targeting Hispanic voters.  With Christie already winning nearly one in five Democratic votes, the RGA’s ads will solidify his lead.

This is a significant development from a broader perspective, as well.  Chris Cillizza explains:

The RGA would not release detailed expenditure information about their latest buy but the symbolism is clear: national Republicans view the New Jersey race as a chance to roll up a major victory in a blue state and, in doing so, send a message to party regulars and voters more broadly that GOP candidates can win even among traditionally Democratic groups.

By proving they are the party of ideas, Republicans can gain the edge in other blue states.  New Jersey is an excellent test case for next year.  Christie is offering Garden State voters a message of market-friendly environmental policies, tough spending controls, and government reform.  These are issues that resonate across the spectrum.  The Christie campaign’s message is one that other Republicans will want to replicate in 2010.

With polls showing Bob McDonnell (R) leading Creigh Deeds (D) by anywhere from 8 to 15 points, CQ determined that the Virginia gubernatorial race is more likely to go to the GOP.

CQ Politics is changing the rating of the Nov. 3 election to “Leans Republican” from “Tossup,” a reflection of McDonnell’s advantage over Deeds less than three months before the election.

 

The updated rating, which signifies that McDonnell has a slight edge in a contest that is highly competitive, owes mainly to three surveys that give McDonnell with a lead over Deeds.

While Gov. Jon Corzine (D) frantically tries to ride the coattails of President Obama, he is trying to tie his opponent, Chris Christie (R), to the last administration.  In a new ad, a narrator discusses Christie’s fundraising for George W. Bush and Christie’s appointment to be U.S. Attorney.  The Corzine campaign uses footage of Christie clapping as a picture of George W. Bush hangs in the background.

A new PPP poll out today is the first indication of the impact New Jersey’s corruption sweep may have upon Gov. Jon Corzine’s (D) faltering campaign.  The poll was taken July 24-27.  The arrests took place on July 23.

Last month, Republican Chris Christie had a 10 point lead over Corzine, 51% to 41%.  That has now grown to a 14 point lead, 50% to 36%.  Christie leads among independents with an impressive 54% to 26% margin, and Corzine even looks weak with Democrats, receiving just 64% of their support.

No question was specifically asked in regards to the corruption probe, but it’s reasonable to postulate the issue weighed on the minds of respondents.  It will be interesting to watch for future polls that include such a question.

Lagging in the polls, Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison (R) is shaking up her campaign.  Her campaign manager, Rick Wiley, is going to Wisconsin to work for Mark Neumann’s gubernatorial campaign.  He is being replaced by Terry Sullivan, who has advised Hutchison in the past.

Hutchison is also overhauling her communications operation.  Jeff Sadosky, her Senate communications director, will serve as press secretary.  Also, Joe Pounder, from Eric Cantor’s office, will work as deputy press secretary.

After yesterday’s round-up of 44 people on money laundering and other charges in New Jersey, Republican Chris Christie is up with an ad touting his anti-corruption record.

Polling out today shows Republican Chris Christie looking even stronger in his race against Gov. Jon Corzine.

A new poll from Republican firm Strategic Vision shows former U.S. attorney Chris Christie (R) growing his lead over New Jersey Gov. Jon Corzine (D).

 

Christie leads Corzine 53-38 in the new poll, which is up from 51-39 last month. The new margin mirrors a poll put out by the Republican Governors Association earlier this month but shows a slightly wider margin than more recent Quinnipiac (+12) and Monmouth (+8) polling.

Not reflected in the poll is Christie’s running mate choice, Kimberly M. Guadagno, who is a former prosecutor and the first woman elected sheriff of Monmouth County.  Guadagno, an outsider in state politics, should further the reformist message of the ticket.

Corzine is clearly in trouble. Another poll today from Monmouth University/Gannett New Jersey indicates his approval rating is at only 37%.  Corzine is attempting to climb back and has launched a new attack ad based on the hearing Christie attended on the Hill last month.  At this point, however, it will be difficult for Corzine to recover.  Christie has momentum and will be tough to stop.

Earlier this week, Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison (R) announced her gubernatorial candidacy in Texas, along with a slight fundraising lead over her primary rival Gov. Rick Perry.  One poll last week showed she still had a tough battle ahead in this intra-party fight.  The poll had Perry at a 12 point advantage.

Rasmussen nearly echoes those numbers.

Incumbent Governor Rick Perry has jumped to a 10-point lead over Senator Kay Bailey Hutchison in an early look at next year’s Republican Primary gubernatorial contest in Texas.

 

A new Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of likely GOP Primary voters in the state finds Perry ahead of Hutchison 46% to 36%. Five percent (5%) prefer some other candidate, and 14% remain undecided.

 

In early May, the two candidates were separated by just four points, with Perry ahead 42% to 38%.

Oddly enough, their favorables are nearly identical. 

Seventy-six percent (76%) have a favorable opinion of the incumbent governor, with 27% very favorable. Just 23% view him unfavorably, including nine percent (9%) very unfavorable.

 

Hutchison is seen favorably by 72% of GOP primary voters, including 27% very favorable, and unfavorably by only 25%, with seven percent (7%) who have a very unfavorable opinion of her.

While Hutchison may not be doing well right now, there is no reason to think this won’t be an interesting race.  Both candidates are incredibly popular.  Hutchison will likely need to go negative soon to give herself a chance of overcoming her deficit.