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Archive for category Congressional Races

RNC’s 60 District Healthcare Target List

Jul 27

Posted by Shawn in Congressional Races, Healthcare

The RNC will be airing a radio ad in 33 states over August recess targeting 60 House Democrats.  Unlike the DNC, Republicans will not be attacking members of their own party.

 

Here is the ad:

 

Most Americans agree. It’s time to take action to reform our healthcare system. But the dangerous experiment President Obama and the Democrats in Congress want just can’t be the right answer. The question is what [Congressman/Congresswoman NAME] will do.

 

Look at their record. The stimulus package cost us hundreds of billions without creating new jobs. The national debt has more than doubled.

 

If Barack Obama and the Democrats get their way, the Federal Government will make the decisions about your health care. And, their plan costs a trillion dollars we don’t have. You have to pay a new tax to keep your private insurance. It’s too much, too fast.

 

Call [Congressman/Congresswoman NAME] at 202-225-3121, that’s 202-225-3121 and tell him/her to say no to this dangerous experiment.

 

Here are 60 target districts:

 

AL-02 Rep. Bobby Bright

 

AL-05 Rep. Parker Griffith

 

AR-02 Rep. Vic Snyder

 

AZ-01 Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick

 

AZ-05 Rep. Harry Mitchell

 

AZ-08 Rep. Gabrielle Giffords

 

CA-11 Rep. Jerry McNerney

 

CO-03 Rep. John Salazar

 

CO-04 Rep. Betsy Markey

 

CO-07 Rep. Ed Perlmutter

 

FL-02 Rep. Allen Boyd

 

FL-08 Rep. Alan Grayson

 

FL-24 Rep. Suzanne Kosmas

 

GA-08 Rep. Jim Marshall

 

GA-12 Rep. John Barrow

 

IA-03 Rep. Leonard Boswell

 

ID-01 Rep. Walt Minnick

 

IL-11 Rep. Debbie Halvorson

 

KS-03 Rep. Dennis Moore

 

KY-06 Rep. Ben Chandler

 

MD-01 Rep. Frank Kratovil

 

MI-01 Rep. Bart Stupak

 

MI-07 Rep. Mark Schauer

 

MN-01 Rep. Tim Walz

 

MN-07 Rep. Collin Peterson

 

MS-01 Rep. Travis Childers

 

MS-04 Rep. Gene Taylor

 

NC-07 Rep. Mike McIntyre

 

NC-08 Rep. Larry Kissell

 

NC-11 Rep. Heath Shuler

 

ND-AL Rep. Earl Pomeroy

 

NH-01 Rep. Carol Shea-Porter

 

NM-01 Rep. Martin Heinrich

 

NM-02 Rep. Harry Teague

 

NV-03 Rep. Dina Titus

 

NY-25 Rep. Dan Maffei

 

NY-29 Rep. Eric Massa

 

OH-01 Rep. Steve Driehaus

 

OH-06 Rep. Charlie Wilson

 

OH-15 Rep. Mary Jo Kilroy

 

OH-16 Rep. John Boccieri

 

OH-18 Rep. Zack Space

 

OK-02 Rep. Dan Boren

 

OR-04 Rep. Peter DeFazio

 

OR-05 Rep. Kurt Schrader

 

PA-03 Rep. Kathy Dahlkemper

 

PA-04 Rep. Jason Altmire

 

PA-10 Rep. Chris Carney

 

PA-11 Rep. Paul Kanjorski

 

SD-AL Rep. Stephanie Herseth Sandlin

 

TN-04 Rep. Lincoln Davis

 

TN-06 Rep. Bart Gordon

 

TN-08 Rep. John Tanner

 

TX-17 Rep. Chet Edwards

 

UT-02 Rep. Jim Matheson

 

VA-02 Rep. Glenn Nye

 

VA-05 Rep. Tom Perriello

 

VA-09 Rep. Rick Boucher

 

WA-03 Rep. Brian Baird

 

WI-08 Rep. Steve Kagen

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VA-05: No Goode For GOP

Jul 27

Posted by Shawn in Congressional Races

The NRCC has already made it clear it views Rep. Tom Perriello as a potential target in 2010.  This is with good reason.  Former Rep. Virgil Goode lost to Perriello by only 727 votes last year.  Goode, however, is not looking for a rematch.  He announced today he will not seek the GOP nomination.

 

State senator Robert Hurt and state Delegate Rob Bell are both likely prospects.  Either way, VA-05 will be a swing district again this cycle.

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NH-01: Shea-Porter Writes NRCC Campaign Ad

Jul 23

Posted by Shawn in Congressional Races, Healthcare

Carol Shea-Porter (D) may want to phrase this differently next time around:

 

“I just wanted to make a couple of comments and say I heard one of my colleagues say ‘waiting in line’ — that people would be ‘waiting in line for medical care,’ and I would like to say that many of my constituents would love to wait in line for medical care.”

 

 

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OH-02: Book Will Challenge Schmidt

Jul 23

Posted by Shawn in Congressional Races

It looks like Rep. Jean Schmidt (R) will face another tough challenge in OH-02 this year.  Democratic state legislator Todd Book announced he will be running for the seat. 

 

Book won’t have a clear field for the Democratic nomination. David Krikorian, who ran against Schmidt as an Independent last year, is trying again, this time as a Democrat. But Gov. Ted Strickland put his weight behind Book’s candidacy today by offering his endorsement.

 

Despite a history of facing competitive campaigns, Schmidt is a notable exclusion from the National Republican Congressional Committee’s Patriot List designed to protect vulnerable incumbents. The NRCC added 15 new names to the list today – including many, like Rep, John Fleming (R-La.) in fairly safe seats – but Schmidt wasn’t added.

 

In a three-way race last year, Schmidt won only 45 percent of the districtwide vote, while John McCain carried the district with 59 percent of the vote last year.

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Recruiting Success May “Inoculate” Dems From 2010 Losses

Jul 22

Posted by Shawn in Congressional Races

The DCCC scored another top recruit today to challenge Rep. Charlie Dent.  According to the Allentown Morning Call:

 

Bethlehem Mayor John Callahan will run for Congress against Republican incumbent Charlie Dent in 2010, sources say, setting up a political battle the likes of which the Lehigh Valley hasn’t seen in 17 years.

 

The two-term mayor has made his decision clear to Democratic Party leaders in Pennsylvania and Washington and is preparing to put a campaign team in place. An official announcement is expected soon.

 

The DCCC tried to get Callahan to run in both 2006 and 2008 but was unsuccessful.  This gives Democrats a strong opportunity to pick up the seat.

 

Josh Kraushaar at Politico thinks this development, along with other recruiting successes could “inoculate” Democrats from major losses in 2010.

 

Callahan’s decision, first reported by the Allentown Morning Call, means that Democrats have landed top-tier candidates to run for five of the six Republican-held seats that remain in solidly Democratic territory (seats Kerry/Obama won).

 

Reps. Mark Kirk (R-Ill.) and Jim Gerlach (R-Pa.) are both vacating suburban seats to pursue higher office. Democrats are bullish about Doug Pike’s campaign to succeed Gerlach in Pennsylvania, and have several promising candidates vying for Kirk’s seat.

 

Democrats also landed well-regarded candidates to run against Rep. Dave Reichert (R-Wash.), Mike Castle (R-Del.) and now have their favored candidate against Dent.

 

The sixth seat is held by New Orleans Republican Joseph Cao, who is considered highly vulnerable no matter who emerges as his Democratic opponent.

 

The midterms are still more than a year away.  If the political climate continues moving against Democrats, then top recruits will make little difference.

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Taking PA-07?

Jul 20

Posted by Shawn in Congressional Races, Senate Races

With Rep. Joe Sestak (D) planning to run against Sen. Arlen Specter (D) in a tough Senate primary, some Democrats are worried they can’t hold onto Sestak’s seat in the House.  This concern was voiced by Pennsylvania Gov. Ed Rendell this morning:

 

Joe, you’re needed in the House. It’s a difficult seat for the Democrats to hold without Joe Sestak running again. His chances of unseating Arlen Specter againt the wishes of an extremely popular president, at least for the Democratic voters, a vice-president who has tremendous impact in the southeastern part of the state, a governor, Sen. Casey — all those elected officials, the mayor of Philadelphia, Mike Nutter, the county executive of Allegheny County…

 

To battle those forces when you’re not even — Joe Sestak doesn’t even have good name recognition in neighboring Philadelphia. Arlen Specter’s been a houshold word for thirty years. I think it’s a tremendous uphill fight and i think it could — it will — cost Joe his seat in the House and may cost the Democratic party what would be a safe seat.

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Dems In Wealthy Districts Fret Over New Taxes

Jul 20

Posted by Shawn in Congress, Congressional Races, Healthcare

As Democrats enact costly legislation, there is growing concern over how to pay for it.  The record deficit will most likely be shouldered by a relatively small constituency of wealthy Americans.  Now with the House Democrats’ healthcare bill featuring a surtax on the rich, Congressional Democrats representing these voters are worried about whether they can hold onto their seats.

 

A group of Democrats elected in recent years from some of the country’s richest congressional districts have emerged as a stumbling block to raising taxes on the wealthy to pay for President Barack Obama’s ambitious health-care overhaul just as the plan has begun to meet increasing resistance over its cost.

…

Election gains in some of these affluent regions have helped give Democrats big majorities in the House and Senate. Of the 25 richest districts, 14 are represented by Democrats, according to Congressional Quarterly. In 1995, Democrats represented just five of those districts.

 

Freshmen Democrats are increasingly vocal about House leadership’s anti-wealth agenda.  The Employee Free Choice Act, new bank regulations, and cap and trade are not popular with the voters who will be hit hardest by the changes.  These pieces of legislation place disproportionate costs on small business owners and other high earners.  Now that Democrats are planning a massive income surtax in the healthcare bill, members from wealthy districts are rightly worried about the 2010 midterms.

 

“There could come a time,” said Rep. Michael McMahon, a freshman Democrat from New York City’s borough of Staten Island, when Democrats are in open rebellion. “We will certainly see in the next few weeks where we are going.”

 

These concerns have not slowed liberal plans for new taxes on the rich.  Health and Human Services Secretary Kathleen Sebelius said on Meet the Press that the wealth surtax is a “legitimate way to go forward.”

 

Speaker Nancy Pelosi, however, indicated in an interview with Politico that she may be moderating her views. 

 

Trying to sell a historic health bill to a balky caucus, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi told POLITICO in an interview that she wants to soften a proposed surcharge on the wealthy so that it applies only to families that make $1 million or more.

…

The speaker would like the trigger raised to $500,000 for individuals and $1 million for families, “so it’s a millionaire’s tax,” she said. “When someone hears, ‘2,’ they think, ‘Oh, I could be there,’ because they don’t know the $280,000 is for one person.

 

“It sounds like you’re in the neighborhood. So I just want to remove all doubt. You hear ‘$500,000 a year,’ you think, ‘My God, that’s not me.’”

 

Certainly, raising the bar is a step in the right direction, but this could still be a sticking point with Democrats from wealthy districts.  If Democrats don’t learn to control their tax-and-spend approach to governing, Republicans could stride to easy victories in these swing districts.

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Buying Votes

Jul 17

Posted by Shawn in Climate Change, Congress, Congressional Races

Earlier today, I discussed the backlash Nancy Pelosi has received from her arm-twisting of moderates on the climate change bill.  What was Pelosi using to pressure wavering Democrats? Cash.

 

Pelosi, along with Majority Whip Jim Clyburn and Energy and Commerce Chairman Henry Waxman, gave tens of thousands to the campaign accounts of moderate Democrats shortly before the vote.

 

Democrats claim the cash transfers were typical for the end of the quarter, but Ken Spain at the NRCC went on the attack over the charges.

 

“If this was a concerted effort by the Democratic leadership to purchase votes for Nancy Pelosi’s national energy tax at the eleventh hour, then it is unconscionable at best and corrupt at worst. The sad fact for those Democrats who were seemingly bought and paid for, is that it will take a lot more money than they received to defend such an atrocious vote.”

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Fundraising Roundup

Jul 15

Posted by Shawn in Congressional Races, Senate Races

MO-Sen:

Rep. Roy Blunt got off to a slow start in his Senate race earlier this year, but he has turned his campaign around.  Blunt raised $1.4 million in the second quarter, compared to only $542,000 in the first.  With this success, it looks like he will probably be uncontested in the primary.  Blunt will face Robin Carnahan (D), Missouri’s Secretary of State, in the general election.

 

OH-Sen:

More good news for Republicans in my home state… Rob Portman, the likely GOP nominee for Ohio’s open Senate seat, raised $1.7 million in the second quarter, giving him $4.3 million cash-on-hand.  This is a significant advantage over the Democratic contenders, Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher and Ohio Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner, who have not done nearly as well.  Combined with polling that shows Portman closing the gap, it looks like Republicans could hold onto this seat.

 

AR-Sen:

Sen. Blanche Lincoln took in nearly $1.3 million in the second quarter, giving her $3.2 million cash-on-hand.  There is not yet a Republican challenger in her race, but the GOP has been hitting Lincoln hard over EFCA and healthcare.  She is a swing vote on both.  Her campaign account should offer some comfort that she can vote with her party if they need her support on one of the issues.

 

DE-AL:

It is yet unclear whether Rep. Mike Castle will run for Senate in Delaware.  As reported previously, he only raised $125,000 in the second quarter.  Some believe Castle will retire from the House if he passes on the Senate campaign.  This looks like a distinct possibility since Castle’s Democratic challenger for his House seat, former Delaware lieutenant governor John Carney, outraised him in the second quarter with $262,000.  Castle still has nearly a 4-to-1 advantage in cash-on-hand if he chooses to run.

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DCCC Having A Good Week? Not Really.

Jul 14

Posted by Shawn in Congressional Races

Chris Cillizza blogs this afternoon that announcements this week from Republican Reps. Mark Kirk (IL) and Jim Gerlach (PA) have damaged GOP prospects.  Kirk will be running for senate and Gerlach for governor.  Both their districts will be difficult for Republicans to retain.  This is certainly good news for the DCCC considering their comparatively lackluster recruiting efforts of late.

 

But the NRCC has reasons to smile.

 

We learn today that former Republican Rep. Tim Walberg is challenging Rep. Mark Schauer (D) for his old seat in MI-07.  This should give Republicans another good pick-up opportunity.  Walberg only lost by 3 points in 2008.

 

Rasmussen also offers Republicans good news on the generic congressional ballot.

 

Republican candidates continue to lead on the latest edition of the Generic Congressional Ballot as Democrats fall to their lowest level of support among voters in recent years.

 

A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey shows that 40% would vote for their district’s Republican congressional candidate while 37% would choose the Democratic candidate.

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