An entertaining video starring Sen. Barbara Boxer and Black Chamber of Commerce CEO Harry C. Alford. They got a little off track…

The contentious negotiations over Waxman-Markey in the House may have been the easy part.  Now that the bill moves to the Senate, it will likely face a much tougher test.  The vote will likely not be until fall, and in that time, it may get improved or could be watered down even more.  Either way, President Obama is already pressuring the Senate to move on the bill, but others doubt its viability:

The “razor-thin vote in the House spells doom in the Senate,” said Sen. James Inhofe, R-Okla., the top Republican on the Senate’s environment panel.

Compromise is possible, but there are key provisions that will doom the bill if they are not addressed.  According to the Wall Street Journal:

But it isn’t clear how much of the sprawling House bill will survive in the Senate, where moderate Democrats and Republicans could form a majority that backs less ambitious action. Among the potential problem areas: the House bill has a provision that would impose tariffs on goods imported from countries that don’t match U.S. carbon dioxide restrictions — a slap at China and India that some business interests fear could provoke a trade war.

The Senate may well work for a better bill, but on an issue that is not only partisan but regional, reaching 60 votes is difficult.  Leadership can twist arms in the House, but Senators do not take as kindly to being told how to vote.  The successful House vote, however, sets the stage for bipartisan cooperation in the much less divided upper chamber.  Al Gore explains the current situation well:

“This bill doesn’t solve every problem,” Mr. Gore said, “but passage today means that we build momentum for the debate coming up in the Senate and negotiations for the treaty talks in December which will put in place a global solution to the climate crisis. There is no backup plan.”

Update: Shortly after I published this post, Democratic Sen. Claire McCaskill twittered with the following, illustrating how regional disparities will be even greater in the Senate:

I hope we can fix cap and trade so it doesn’t unfairly punish businesses and families in coal dependent states like Missouri.

On an otherwise slow news day, I particularly enjoyed reading about Rep. Ciro Rodriguez getting himself in a tussle with his leadership.  I pointed out yesterday the heart-to-heart he had with Pelosi shortly before the vote:

In the back of the chamber, Pelosi had an intimate conversation with Rep. Ciro Rodriguez (D-Texas), with the Speaker seeming to emphasize her points with her pointed fingers.

 

Their conversation ended with Pelosi giving Rodriguez a hug and a kiss on the cheek.

Next time Rodriguez sees Pelosi, he is unlikely to get a smooch. 

 

Rodriguez had told leadership that he was a likely yes — but then cast a quick “no” vote and practically sprinted from the chamber, frustrating floor managers whose shouts of “Rodriguez!” rang through the House as the final anxious votes were cast.

 

At one point, New York Rep. Anthony Weiner bounced from a huddle of leadership members and began calling the rep’s name, like a wayward toddler, as he scanned the Speaker’s lobby and the adjacent balcony.

 

“He cast his no and then ran the hell out of there,” said a member of the whipping team, still steaming after the vote. “We tried him at his office and they said he was gone.”

Lucky for Pelosi, she had the votes she needed.  Rep. Patrick Kennedy left rehab to push the climate bill through.

And so it passes.  A very close 219-212, following a bit of a failed filibuster attempt by Boehner.

Minority Leader John A. Boehner, R-Ohio, launched into a roughly hour-long critique of Energy and Commerce Chairman Henry A. Waxman’s 300-page substitute amendment.

 

The amendment was filed at about 3 a.m. Friday, Boehner complained, giving House members little opportunity to study its contents.

 

But Democrats accused Boehner of stalling, with the hope that some lawmakers planning to vote for the bill would leave to begin their July Fourth recess.

 

“I hate to do this to you, I really do,” Boehner said, as he went through the amendment raising questions about specific provisions. “But when you file a 300-page amendment at 3:09 a.m., the American people have the right to know what’s in this bill. They have the right to know what we are voting on.”

Democrats still have not presented a final version of the bill, and there seems to be much confusion on the floor as to where it is or if it exists.

It’s now looking like the Waxman-Markey vote may not go down until tomorrow.  Leadership is still counting votes and pressuring Dems from swing districts.

[Pelosi and Hoyer] were able to get to a number of members, some of whom — including Rep. Jason Altmire (D-Pa.) and freshman Rep. Harry Teague (D-N.M.) — Pelosi and Hoyer double-teamed.

 

In the back of the chamber, Pelosi had an intimate conversation with Rep. Ciro Rodriguez (D-Texas), with the Speaker seeming to emphasize her points with her pointed fingers.

But Pelosi tries to end her encounters cordially:

Their conversation ended with Pelosi giving Rodriguez a hug and a kiss on the cheek.

It appears Democrats may now feel safe as Rep. Tim Walz seems to have confirmed his vote:

At one point near the end of the appropriations vote series, Capps passed Rep. Tim Walz (D-Minn.), a declared undecided, in the rear of the chamber.

 

Walz gave Capps a thumbs-up, and she responded with an enthusiastic double-thumbs-up and a wide smile.

 

Shortly thereafter, Pelosi huddled with top leadership in the rear of the chamber. She stood up with a big smile, and walked out of the chamber.

Steve Hayward at National Review says the word on the street is Waxman-Markey may get pulled.  Nothing official, but Pelosi is struggling to get the votes.