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Archive for category 2012

Republicans Dominate PAC Money

Jul 31

Posted by Shawn in 2012, Congressional Races, Senate Races

GOP PACs lead in fundraising by nearly a two-to-one margin over Democratic PACs.  In the first half of the year, Republicans raised more than $10 million.  Democrats took in only $5.5 million during this same period.  Eight of the top ten PACs during this time were Republican.

 

1. Romney’s Free and Strong America PAC — $1,924,375.

2. The conservative Democratic Blue Dog PAC — $1,106,887.

3. Every Republican Is Crucial, tied to Rep. Eric Cantor, R-Va. — $855,879.

4. Senate Conservatives Fund, tied to Sen. Jim DeMint, R-S.C. — $797,071.

5. Palin’s SarahPAC — $732,868.

6. Freedom Project, tied to House Minority Leader John A. Boehner, R-Ohio — $725,499.

7. McCain’s Country First PAC — $523,483.

8. 21st Century Democrats — $452,816.

9. Republican Main Street Partnership PAC — $365,887.

10 Senate Majority Fund, tied Sen. Jon Kyl, R-Ariz. — $358,214

 

Meanwhile, Newt Gingrich’s 527, American Solutions for Winning the Future, announced it raised $8.1 million so far this year.

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Obama And Romney Tied For 2012

Jul 20

Posted by Shawn in 2012

If anyone was wondering about prospective 2012 matchups , the Rasmussen poll out today offers a first look.

 

Obama: 45%

Romney: 45%

Some Other Candidate: 7%

Undecided: 3%

 

The poll also offers further proof that Sarah Palin would be a disastrous choice for the GOP.

 

Obama: 48%

Palin: 42%

Some Other Candidate: 7%

Undecided: 3%

 

Romney’s strength lies with independents.

 

When Romney is the Republican nominee, he beats Obama among unaffiliated voters 48% to 41%. But when Palin is the GOP candidate, unaffiliated voters prefer Obama by a 47% to 41% margin.

 

And for those who like to speculate about scenarios that are even less likely to happen than a Palin presidency (honestly, not sure why they bothered asking this)…

 

If Romney secured the GOP nomination and Palin chose to run as an independent candidate, Obama would win the resulting three-way race with 44% of the vote. Romney is the choice of 33% of the voters under that scenario, with Palin a distant third with 16% support. Three percent (3%) like some other candidate, and four percent (4%) are undecided.

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Romney Has Early Lead For GOP Nomination

Jul 16

Posted by Shawn in 2012

While it is pointless to begin speculating three years before the primaries, polling shows Mitt Romney has more support from Republican voters than any other prospective candidate.  The poll, out today from Gallup, shows Romney with a five point lead over Sarah Palin and seven point lead over Mike Huckabee.

 

Palin actually leads Romney in favorability amongst Republicans.  While she may be slightly more popular, Romney’s advantage may indicate Republicans realize the threat she poses to the party.  With Obama’s plummeting popularity, the GOP surprisingly has a chance to win in 2012.  Palin may be popular with Republicans, but if she’s nominated, Obama would win in a landslide. 

 

Romney looks like the right candidate for the GOP.  His issue strengths are what the party needs to challenge Obama.  He can speak articulately about economic issues, and he has the credentials to back up what he says. 

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2012: Cantor And Pence

Jul 14

Posted by Shawn in 2012

CQ notes the potential ambitions of Reps. Eric Cantor and Mike Pence:

 

Minority Whip Eric Cantor of Virginia made the short list of candidates for vice president last year and has already moved onto the list of potential candidates for president for 2012, having launched a series of listening tours and policy forums.

 

House Republican Conference Chairman Mike Pence of Indiana recently added his name to that list by scheduling a trip to Iowa starting July 25 — just before the final week of the hectic July session.

 

Cantor and Pence both insist they are focused on their party’s agenda in the House.

…

The rising profile for both men has helped them to build thriving leadership political action committees. Cantor has raised $637,000 for his PAC, Every Republican Is Crucial, while Pence has raised $71,000 for his, called Principles Exalt a Nation.

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Leading The PAC

Jul 13

Posted by Shawn in 2012

According to an FEC report filed today, Sarah Palin’s political action committee, Sarah PAC, raised $733,000.  This is the first sign that Palin is capable of raising money on the national level.  It was a solid total for Palin, who spent $276,000 on fundraising appeals and a number of consultants in Alaska and Washington.  It appears she wisely stayed away from Nordstrom’s and Saks Fifth Avenue.

 

Mitt Romney, however, was the fundraising winner with $1.4 million taken in by Free and Strong America PAC during the first half of the year.  This will give Romney a small advantage as both likely presidential candidates offer their support to Republicans in the 2010 midterms.

 

Leadership PACs can be useful to presidential candidates as they build their fundraising networks and hire top consultants, but they are not always a good indication of candidate strength.  There is almost three years left until primary votes are cast, and some potential candidates have not yet formed PACs.

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Republicans And The Youth Vote

Jun 29

Posted by Shawn in 2012

Both Sen. Lindsey Graham and Gov. Tim Pawlenty yesterday voiced their concerns over the GOP’s less-than-adequate efforts building youth support.  Graham explained:

 

“Demographically and with young people we’ve got our work cut out for us,” Graham said on NBC’s “Meet the Press.” “We’ll do well in 2010 but I’m worried about 20 years from now for us to do better—to be a party not a club—we’re going to have to adjust.”

 

But Republicans have a chance to win back young voters:

 

“The biggest loser for 18-to-34 year olds, is my opinion, the Obama agenda. They’re the ones that are going to have to pay for this massive government. They’re the ones that are going to lose choice in health care,” Graham said.

 

The youth vote happens to be an issue of which I am fairly knowledgeable.  I wrote an award-winning thesis on the subject, and I’m familiar with the GOP’s failure to understand the importance of changing tactics.  I strongly believe Republicans can win over many young voters.  It is unlikely we can win a majority of 18-29 year-olds, but at least we won’t cede an entire demographic to Democrats.

 

My Thesis: “The Effects of Campaigns On Young Voter Turnout”

 

 

Campaigns in the past have only seen young people as two things: protesters and volunteers.  We now need to acknowledge they are voters.

 

Based upon the survey research that I studied in my thesis, I believe there are three primary ways Republicans can build a vast youth coalition.

 

1. Issue salience is a factor that contributes to turnout for all voters.  Based on the issue focus of an election, which is dependent upon ballot initiatives, as well as local, state, and federal elections, there is a strong variation in turnout.  Issue salience also affects young people. Unfortunately, the issues that older voters care about are not the same for young voters.  Elections that target issues that most affect the lives of young people see a rise in turnout from this constituency.

 

2. The effect of media upon young voters is different than that of older voters.  There are clear indications that young people receive their political knowledge from non-traditional sources, such as comedy news shows and the Internet.  While this is widely known, my research also found that the perception of media varies according to age.  Specifically, what is known as the life-cycle effect, which is turnout peaking for middle-aged voters, can be negated by the tone of a campaign.  Intent-to-vote, in comparing middle-aged voters to the young and old, is reduced to a statistically insignificant margin when campaign tone is perceived to be negative.  In other words, middle-aged voters are demobilized and young and old are mobilized by negativity.

 

3. Probably the most important discovery of my research was the influence of GOTV on young people.  Campaigns rarely use GOTV resources to target young people, but they are the most likely to respond to it.  In my analysis of age cohorts, I found that some of these cohorts had as high as a 64.1% GOTV contact rate during the 2004 campaign, but young voters had a contact rate of about one-third of this.  What is most surprising is that the young voters who were targeted were more likely to vote as a result of the contact.  Turnout for young voters who are contacted by campaigns is between 17.3% and 27.2% higher than those who are not.  Older voters in my research showed a maximum increase of 13.2% higher turnout resulting from contact, a substantial difference.  A logistic regression comparing GOTV, past voting, education, and party identification shows that GOTV is by far the greatest factor in determining whether someone between the ages of 18 and 29 will vote.

 

While more young people have voted Democratic over the past several election cycles, Republicans should see hope in continued evidence that young people are very independent.  They do not want to be identified with a particular party.  Over the years that have seen young people backing Democratic candidates, we also see young voters’ party identification remaining stable.  This insight is backed up by studies showing that most incoming college freshman consider themselves to be politically moderate.  To be more accurate, 43% consider themselves moderate, 29% liberal, and 23% conservative.   This is hardly a margin that cannot be overcome through educating students about conservative policies.

 

The key to all this is microtargeting students.  Young people are congregated around college campuses.  While we cannot easily contact them with direct mail and robocalls, that’s actually good because it’s not cost-effective anyway.  By going door-to-door in these areas and working directly with student organizations, we can be very successful at getting out our message.  We should be talking to college business clubs about tax policy, pre-med and medical school students about malpractice reform, and ROTC groups about national security.  This is not microtargeting in the traditional sense, but it takes our message directly to the young people who are most likely to support Republicans.

 

If the GOP can implement some of these ideas, we will find we are not far behind Democrats on the youth vote.

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Romney!

Jun 29

Posted by Shawn in 2012

Headlining Politico this morning is a Jonathan Martin piece on Mitt Romney’s growing clout in the GOP as he prepares for his likely 2012 presidential candidacy.  I pointed out yesterday that Romney deferred when asked on Meet the Press whether he would run, but every indication is he will.  His former campaign staffers maintain close contact with one another, and top aides still advise Romney on a regular basis.

 

The takeaways from the article are precisely what everyone already knows.  The 2012 climate, barring any new national crises, will play well to his issue strengths.

 

After the national security-dominated Bush years, the recession has brought the importance of economic issues into sharp focus.

 

Following a primary spent trying to navigate the politics of Iraq and a vigorous–and sometimes cringe-inducing–courtship of social conservatives, the issue matrix now favors Romney’s background as a turnaround specialist.

 

Of course, with many concerned over the recent GOP sex scandals, Romney is a safe bet for the party.

 

And while other potential 2012 contenders in the party are falling by the wayside because of adultery, Romney loyalists say the father of five’s straight arrow ways suddenly look even more appealing.

 

“We know everything about the guy,” said one former Romney campaign official. “The good, the bad and the ugly. And it ain’t that ugly.”

 

Even those who were once vehemently opposed to Romney are now pointing out his strength.

 

“He’s obviously the frontrunner,” said Mark Salter, a former top aide to John McCain who launched some tough attacks on Romney during the primary.

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Born To Run

Jun 28

Posted by Shawn in 2012

Pawlenty, Barbour, and Romney all gave interviews this morning and were asked about the possibility of running in 2012.  Unsurprisingly, they offered vague answers, claiming it was still too early and they are unsure of what the future will hold.

 

Asked about Sanford, Romney offered his view:

 

“…Not all mistakes are the same. And not everybody is a governor or a senator or a president. And we expect [those] people to live by a higher standard, because what they do is going to be magnified, their families are going to be hurt more by what they do, the things they care about will be hurt, and the culture of the nation and the people who follow them will be hurt.”

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