America is seeing the light at the end of the tunnel as we pass through this recession. Most believe that economic indicators are starting to show signs of improvement. Papers today led with news that the housing market may have stabilized. Last week, employment numbers were still dismal, but new filings for unemployment insurance benefits remained below 600,000. The most noticeable sign of recovery for most Americans is that the Dow Jones Industrial Average is hovering above 9,000, which is a 39% gain since March.
While everyone is thrilled to see the economy making a comeback, this presents a conundrum for Republican strategists. Democrats have a very simple plan: own the economy. Leading up to 2010 and 2012, liberals will blame the economic collapse on the Bush Administration and claim full responsibility for any improvements made since Obama took office. With fifteen months left before the midterms, it is unlikely the economy will stagnate. It’s going to grow, and Democrats can point to their stimulus and new regulations as the cornerstones of recovery.
The prospect of this debate worries Republicans. Right now, their message questioning wasteful spending and high unemployment resonates with the public. Coupled with the unpopularity of Obama’s healthcare push, the economy has sunk Obama’s approval ratings. But when the economy improves, Obama may have a Clinton-esque rebound.
The GOP needs to prepare to deal with this dilemma. Three talking points will be key:
1. Recovery is a natural part of the economic cycle.
2. Democrats’ spending binge has slowed growth and piled debt on the backs of taxpayers.
3. Republican opposition has boosted the economy.
These are relatively simple points to argue. Almost everyone has said from the start of the crisis that the economy would grow again; we just needed to hit bottom first. With public concerns over Obama’s record deficit, the second talking point may resonate the most with voters. Americans are weary of the stimulus package and calls for new entitlements. High taxes don’t aid the economy. Lastly, Republicans have surprisingly been able to slow some legislation more than anticipated. Healthcare, card check, and cap and trade are three primary examples. They all may eventually pass, but conservative opposition has softened the blow to business. According to an article in The Hill, financial analysts say that the stock market has gone up as a result of Obama’s stalled agenda.
Republicans should not wait to begin making these points. Over recess, the GOP should hammer Obama’s handling of the economy. The idea needs to be planted in voters’ minds that the economy will improve, but Republicans could have sped up the process. If the GOP doesn’t do this now, it will be difficult to make the argument next year when Obama’s popularity shows a perfect correlation to economic growth.