As the economy worsens, the Obama Administration’s electoral prospects drop. We are a full year and a half from the next election, but Democrats have a tough road ahead unless the economy begins to pick up. The news this morning featured several articles asking what Democrats can do to recover. Republicans are ready to go on the attack. It will be difficult for liberals to defend their weak position as the dominant force in government.
Mark Penn discussed this morning how rising unemployment could halt the Democratic agenda and offer Republicans endless talking points:
If and when the country crosses that line [10% unemployment], it will be the No. 1 news story for days, recent stock market gains could recede, and consumer confidence will fall. And whether or not the economic crisis is coming to an end, such a high unemployment level has the potential to undermine the hard-won confidence enjoyed by the Obama administration. The Republicans will quickly claim all we have is more debt and fewer jobs.
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Especially given the administration’s earlier commitment to keep unemployment below 8 percent, further grim job numbers will make it more difficult for the administration to push for health care reform and cap-and-trade energy policy. If the tripwire is hit, many will question whether the president is spending adequate time on the deteriorating job and economic front versus longer-term problems. (Politico)
This argument is already taking shape.
“In the midst of this recession, Republicans’ No. 1 priority is the same as the American people’s: jobs,” [House Minority Leader John] Boehner said in a statement to POLITICO. “Yet, again and again, rather than working together to enact policies that will actually help middle-class families and small businesses, Democrats have pushed policies — on energy and health care, for example — that will cost even more American jobs.” (Politico)
Democrats told Americans they would be able to fix the economy. They continue to make the argument that it was George Bush who got us into this mess, but at some point, voters are going to start asking why Obama’s policies are still not working.
Administration officials had predicted that the stimulus program would save or create 600,000 jobs by summer. But the economy has lost more than two million jobs since Mr. Obama took office, and officials now estimate that the program has saved only about 150,000 jobs.
Republicans say that Mr. Obama’s recovery plan is failing and proves that government spending is an inefficient way to help the economy. Some Democrats fret that the program may be either too small or too slow. (New York Times)
It is clear voters are growing frustrated. They have seen the Administration inject taxpayer dollars into the economy but to no avail. Republicans are again starting to look like the party of fiscal responsibility and sound economic policy. Polls in Virginia and Ohio have shown Obama dropping below 50% approval in the two swing states. And a Rasmussen generic ballot shows Republicans with a lead in hypothetical congressional races.
Much of this drop in polling numbers comes from independents turning on Obama.
“This is a huge sea change that is playing itself out in American politics,” said Democratic pollster Doug Schoen. “Independents who had become effectively operational Democrats in 2006 and 2008 are now up for grabs and are trending Republican.
“They’re saying, ‘Costing too much, no results, see the downside, not sure of the upside,’” he said. (Politico)
This could have implications for next year’s congressional races. Voters are beginning to say that they want a counterweight to liberal policies. While Obama is personally popular, his issue stances are not. Democrats in Congress have worked hard to push through legislation that is bringing a loss in public opinion.
Still, Republican analysts said they see the beginnings of an opportunity to use White House policies — if not Obama himself — against Democratic candidates this year and next.
“What’s happening now is that as these issues get debated more and more and as their fiscal implications become more and more clear, independents are starting to side more with Republicans than Democrats,” said pollster Whit Ayres.
Another Republican pollster, John McLaughlin, pointed to his own surveys in January and May asking whether voters would prefer their members of Congress to “help Barack Obama pass his agenda” or to be a “check and balance to Barack Obama.”
The May survey found a majority favoring the check and balance, marking a 17-point shift from January, a shift the pollster said was driven in large part by independents. (Politico)
All this has given Republicans a sense of hope. The GOP now has a phenomenally successful recruitment effort for the midterms next year. This would have been unthinkable a few months ago. Meanwhile, Democrats are struggling. Preferred candidates are choosing not to run and liberals are lining up to challenge Democratic incumbents.
Cook Political Report analyst Jennifer Duffy said the GOP had a “really good couple of weeks and probably its first good couple weeks in four years.”
“The policy choices that are being made, whether it’s the stimulus working or various approaches to healthcare, give Republicans an opening,” she said. “And I think generally, a lot of [Republicans] got a big wake-up call. They woke up one day and they had nothing.” (The Hill)
The 2010 midterms are looking like an opportunity for Republicans to win back many of the seats they lost. It was already unlikely for Democrats to make any pickups because of how district lines are drawn, but now Republicans should be able to regain the swing and right-leaning districts they lost the past two cycles. Republican fundraising should increase rapidly now that electoral prospects are improving. Next year could deliver a complete electoral shift that seemed impossible after the GOP barely survived the Bush years.