The contentious negotiations over Waxman-Markey in the House may have been the easy part. Now that the bill moves to the Senate, it will likely face a much tougher test. The vote will likely not be until fall, and in that time, it may get improved or could be watered down even more. Either way, President Obama is already pressuring the Senate to move on the bill, but others doubt its viability:
The “razor-thin vote in the House spells doom in the Senate,” said Sen. James Inhofe, R-Okla., the top Republican on the Senate’s environment panel.
Compromise is possible, but there are key provisions that will doom the bill if they are not addressed. According to the Wall Street Journal:
But it isn’t clear how much of the sprawling House bill will survive in the Senate, where moderate Democrats and Republicans could form a majority that backs less ambitious action. Among the potential problem areas: the House bill has a provision that would impose tariffs on goods imported from countries that don’t match U.S. carbon dioxide restrictions — a slap at China and India that some business interests fear could provoke a trade war.
The Senate may well work for a better bill, but on an issue that is not only partisan but regional, reaching 60 votes is difficult. Leadership can twist arms in the House, but Senators do not take as kindly to being told how to vote. The successful House vote, however, sets the stage for bipartisan cooperation in the much less divided upper chamber. Al Gore explains the current situation well:
“This bill doesn’t solve every problem,” Mr. Gore said, “but passage today means that we build momentum for the debate coming up in the Senate and negotiations for the treaty talks in December which will put in place a global solution to the climate crisis. There is no backup plan.”
Update: Shortly after I published this post, Democratic Sen. Claire McCaskill twittered with the following, illustrating how regional disparities will be even greater in the Senate:
I hope we can fix cap and trade so it doesn’t unfairly punish businesses and families in coal dependent states like Missouri.